At the beginning of 2026, geopolitics once again dropped a bombshell. The United States and Israel launched military actions against Iran, and the tension in the Middle East suddenly escalated. For foreign trade, shipping, and energy markets, this is not just ordinary international news, but a systematic shock that could reshape global logistics routes and cost structures.

1. The global energy "throat" is at risk

One of the most sensitive nodes of global energy supply - the Strait of Hormuz - is the first to be affected.

This narrowest part of the sea passage, only 33 kilometers wide, bears about 30% of the world's seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas transportation, with a daily average crude oil throughput of about 20 million barrels. Iran controls the north bank, and once the situation gets out of control, even if it is only "locally restricted", it will quickly be transmitted to the global energy price and freight system.

What the market is most worried about is not a complete blockade, but the "normalization of high-risk status" - insurance premiums soar, escort costs rise, and shipping companies take the initiative to hedge risks.

2. Has global shipping entered the "detour era"?

If the Persian Gulf route is blocked, oil tankers and container ships will be forced to detour Cape of Good Hope, increasing the voyage by 15-20 days and the overall mileage by about 40%.

What does this mean?

• The cost of oil transportation has risen rapidly: the capacity of Middle East to Europe and Asia routes is tight, and spot freight rates fluctuate sharply.

• The container shipping schedule is in chaos: the turnover cycle of Asia-Europe routes is lengthened, and delays may last from a few weeks to 1-3 months.

• Low-value-added goods are the hardest hit: daily necessities and textiles, which already have thin profits, may lose their price advantage after the increase in freight.

Once "detour" becomes a periodic normal, the effective capacity of global ships will be compressed, and the market will experience a periodic shortage of capacity.

Greater uncertainty lies in the direction of the Red Sea.

If Iran's ally, the Houthi armed forces, escalates its actions, the risks of passage through the Strait of Mandeb and the Suez Canal will significantly increase. The already stressed Red Sea route may suffer a "second paralysis".

Global container capacity (such as Maersk, MSC, etc.) of 53% may be suspended in the Red Sea route and fully detour Cape of Good Hope, and Euro-Asian trade will face a double impact of "time + cost".

This is not only a routing problem, but also a global supply chain rhythm issue.

3. What chain reactions will it bring?

This shock will not stay only in the energy field.

1. In terms of oil transportation: the suspension/detour of Middle East → Europe/Asia routes, extremely tight capacity.

2. In terms of container transportation: Asia-Europe routes are in chaos, possible delays of 1-3 months, and low-value-added goods lose competitiveness.

3. In terms of bulk/chemicals: Iran accounts for 50% of global methanol exports and 30% of sulfur exports. Supply chain disruptions push up the cost of fertilizers, plastics, and chip raw materials.

4. In terms of ports: congestion in Middle East, Mediterranean, and European ports intensifies, empty/full container turnover malfunctions, and containers face shortages.

For foreign trade and supply chain practitioners, this is both a challenge and a window period.

In the past few years, we have witnessed the global supply chain move from "extreme efficiency" to "safety redundancy". Today, geopolitical conflicts combined with structural fluctuations mean that this trend will continue. The market in 2026 will not be stable. But in every severe shock, a new competitive pattern will be reshaped.

In an era where uncertainty becomes the norm, true competitiveness is not about predicting storms, but having the ability to sail in storms.

Source: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Bachelor