Driven by concentrated shipments ahead of the National Day Golden Week, North America route demand remains supported, and Southeast Asia route rates rose nearly 10%. Actual quotes vary clearly by carrier, sailing and volume, and some US spot quotes have softened.

SCFI rises for eighth consecutive week

The latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), released on September 18, rose 25.65 points, or 0.7% week on week, to 3,687.83 points, marking the eighth consecutive weekly increase.

By component, North America routes continued to rise, with US West Coast and US East Coast routes up 3.01% and 0.95%, respectively. Southeast Asia routes rose nearly 10%, while Europe and Mediterranean routes fell 6.48% and 5.34%, respectively.

The SCFI increase was still mainly supported by North America and some intra-Asia routes, while Europe and Mediterranean routes were relatively weak.

Industry sources said Asian port congestion, low water levels in the Panama Canal, peak-season US demand and pre-Golden Week shipments are supporting North America rates. Carriers' capacity management and fuel/Panama Canal surcharges also affect overall transport costs.

Other platform indexes keep climbing

Other platform data also show US East Coast routes priced at high levels recently.

Xeneta data shows China-US East Coast 40-foot container (FEU) spot rates have risen to $10,948, more than tripling since the US-Iran conflict broke out on February 28. The price is still about $952, or 8%, away from the January 2022 record of $11,900.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said key route rates are approaching pandemic-era highs. Large shippers moving cargo before the Golden Week may continue to support market prices.

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) on September 17 shows Shanghai-New York FEU spot rates rose nearly 7% week on week to $10,394. Drewry expects the pre-Golden Week shipment rush may further push up this route.

These platform/spot indexes differ from actual quotes received by forwarders.

Actual forwarder quotes vary significantly

Recent forwarder feedback shows US line prices are clearly diverging.

From September 18 to 30, some forwarders' reference quotes show US West Coast 40-foot containers at about $6,200–$8,300, US East Coast at about $9,000–$12,500, and Europe at about $3,500–$4,200.

Not all cargo can get these high prices. A large foreign forwarder said some actual US West Coast quotes have appeared at a special $6,000, about $800 lower than before; some US East Coast sailings also quote around $8,000, and it expects a market pullback before Golden Week.

Feedback from large domestic forwarders shows some actual US West Coast quotes rose about $300 this week. For the US East Coast, a $500 Panama Canal surcharge was added, but FAK all-in rates were not raised accordingly.

Another large forwarder said that from September 18 to 30, actual market quotes are about $8,300 to the US West Coast and $12,500 to the US East Coast. Port congestion, low Panama Canal water levels and peak-season shipments still support prices.

On the carrier side, sources said US route FAK prices have not changed, but some carriers relaxed price tier mixes, so actual average market prices have declined. Some US East Coast sailings already have quotes around $9,000, and light cargo can get preferential rates around $8,800.

Rising indexes and some lower actual quotes can coexist. Platform indexes reflect overall market changes under specific statistical standards, while actual transaction prices depend on carrier, sailing, volume, weight, space and price mix.

Market still divided around Golden Week

Drewry capacity data shows next week's trans-Pacific routes are expected to have nine blank sailings, up from eight this week. US line rates should retain some short-term support.

Asia-Europe routes are expected to have four blank sailings next week, up from one this week. Due to weak demand, Drewry expects Asia-Europe rates to fall slightly next week.

Currently, pre-Golden Week shipments are still supporting North America routes, but actual prices have clearly diverged. Some tight, high-volume sailings hold high prices, while others seek cargo through adjusted mixes and discounts.

As Golden Week approaches, short-term US line prices may stay high, but post-holiday cargo volume remains the key focus.

September 18 SCFI rates

US routes continued to rise, Europe and Mediterranean routes continued to fall, and Southeast Asia rates rose sharply due to port congestion in East and Southeast Asia:

• Far East to Europe: $2,425/TEU, down $120, -4.71%;

• Far East to Mediterranean: $3,125/TEU, down $174, -5.27%;

• Far East to US West Coast: $7,560/FEU, up $221, +3.01%;

• Far East to US East Coast: $10,579/FEU, up $100, +0.95%;

• Persian Gulf: $6,246/TEU, down 1.0%;

• Australia-New Zealand: $2,944/TEU, up 6.9%;

• South America: $7,703/TEU, down 10.0%;

• Intra-Asia: Far East-Southeast Asia $1,104/TEU, up $94, +9.3%; Far East-Japan Kansai down $7/TEU; Far East-Japan Kanto down $3/TEU; Far East-Korea up $31/TEU.

Seller Home Review

Freight rates have risen for eight consecutive weeks, but US route quotes have softened. Sellers should watch peak-season surcharges and actual space price gaps, prioritize locking in US route contracts, watch Southeast Asia restocking windows, and adjust shipping schedules.

Source: Marine Network
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