According to Agence France - Presse, tracking and research by the shipping analysis agency Kpler shows that since the US - Iran ceasefire was announced, only 10 ships, including 4 cruise ships and 6 bulk carriers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz within two days up to the 9th.

British Maritime Analysis Company: The Strait of Hormuz is Still Strictly Controlled and Navigation Recovery is Limited

Windsor, a maritime analysis company headquartered in the UK, released a report on the 9th saying that after the US and Iran announced the ceasefire, the navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz is still low and ship navigation remains under strict control.

The report points out that the ceasefire has not led to the full restoration of commercial shipping. The standard shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz are basically not used. On the 8th, only 5 bulk carriers were tracked leaving the port, all navigating through the channels controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran. On the 9th, the increase in ship activities in and out of the strait was limited, mainly small ships or shipping related to Iran. All passages require coordination with the Iranian side. Iran warns ships that unapproved passage will directly face the risk of attack.

The report says that currently, the ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz are mainly operated by operators with relatively high risk - bearing capabilities, but no large - scale shipping enterprises or oil giants have resumed sailing. The war risk insurance premium rates are still high, which also limits the return of mainstream shipping forces. Iran is gradually establishing relevant systems to control the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, including pre - voyage approval, ship inspection, delineation of shipping lanes and possible passage toll arrangements.

Data shows that about 3,200 ships are still stranded to the west of the Strait of Hormuz, including about 800 oil tankers and cargo ships. Meanwhile, there are 768 ships operating in the Gulf region, but "dark navigation" phenomena such as restricted navigation and closed automatic identification systems of ships still exist.

At the same time, there has been a significant adjustment in the trade flow in the Gulf region. Shipping activities that originally passed through the Strait of Hormuz have shifted to ports on the east coast of Oman and the United Arab Emirates, forming a new logistics diversion system. Shipping enterprises generally adopt alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope. The conventional route from Europe to the Gulf region has been extended from about 25 days to about 41 days, and the transportation cost has increased by about 25%.

The report believes that from April 8th to 10th is the initial test window period. If the navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases and no accidents occur, the market may re - evaluate the risks; from April 11th to 14th will be the decision - making window period for major shipping enterprises, and they will decide their corporate strategies according to the duration of the ceasefire and relevant implementation measures.

The report says that even in the most optimistic situation, it will still take several weeks for the energy cargoes stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to resume transportation, and it may take several months for global trade to return to the level before the current crisis broke out.

Source: Xinhua International Headlines