"Give up; there's no point in Black Friday this year."

This month's Amazon has left many sellers feeling the downturn. In past years, this was the time to gradually build volume and ranking weight for Black Friday, but this year feels different. Some sellers said helplessly: "In past years, 200+ orders a day at this time was no problem, but over the past half month it has kept falling—now 30–40 orders a day, ads still burning hard, and ACOS has soared above 40. Discounts were adjusted early, bids were raised, the listing has no violations and no negative reviews, but traffic just won’t come, and conversion is terribly low."

All peak-season moves have been made, but backend data remains frozen. Many sellers are not worried about the current cold sales, but fear Black Friday won’t pick up either.

01

This year's peak-season warm-up is eerily quiet

Advertising is the most direct pain point. Some sellers said ACOS was around 20% last year, but this year it is 40%–50%, never below 30%. The share of ad orders keeps rising, while organic orders keep falling. Stop ads and they fear losing all exposure; keep spending and they lose money every day. This dilemma is not new, but it feels more concentrated this year.

Prices are also squeezing margins. One seller mentioned that the company required a 5% price increase across all SKUs; as a result, account sales collapsed while ads kept spending. Competitors priced $0.30 lower, or launched new listings, and aggressively grabbed traffic. Elsewhere, some sellers said competitors are already priced extremely low before Black Friday. Raising prices risks losing orders; cutting prices risks working for nothing. Margins are already thin, and further cuts would mean paying to sell.

The old playbook of "increase ads, adjust discounts, and wait for peak season" is losing marginal effect.

Of course, not all sellers are cold this year—divergence is intensifying. Top sellers and low-price items are taking more traffic, while small and medium sellers feel colder. Some sellers said they are stable at 200+ orders with ACOS in the 20s, and some Christmas product sellers said sales doubled at the end of October.

But it is undeniable that buyer budgets are shrinking. One US consumer said: "Our living costs and prices have risen too much. Many people have no extra money for unnecessary things, and we now care a lot about value for money."

On one hand, rising living costs make consumers compare prices and hesitate more before ordering, and the same budget is measured repeatedly. On the other hand, demand has not disappeared; consumers are shifting from impulse buying to purchases with clear purposes and calculable value.

So the market is not completely dead; demand is flowing more intensively to products with suitable price ranges, clear selling points, and solid reputations. This is also forcing sellers to make products, prices, and content more comparable.

02

Cross-border e-commerce traffic entry points are changing

The latest AI traffic trend report released by Adobe shows that in September, traffic to US retail sites from AI channels grew 71% year over year. AI visitors converted 90% more than non-AI visitors, and revenue per visit was 83% higher. AI visitors stayed 73% longer, viewed 25% more pages, and added items to cart at a 53% higher rate.

This trend did not appear suddenly. According to Adobe tracking data, since statistics began in October 2024, cumulative AI-referred traffic has grown by about 1772%. In 2025, the revenue contribution of the two traffic types was still basically flat; only after summer 2026 did the value of AI visitors clearly pull ahead. This means AI entry points went from "barely noticeable" to "high commercial value" in only about one year.

Adobe also predicts that on Thanksgiving Day, AI traffic will grow 159% year over year, on Black Friday 95%, and on Cyber Monday 88%.

These figures cover US retail websites overall, and not every seller can capture AI traffic. But it is undeniable that the path by which consumers enter product pages is changing. Traffic no longer comes only from search and ad placements; visitors brought by recommendations and AI entry points may come with stronger comparison and decision intent.

Notably, different AI interfaces drive traffic differently. Taking Google AI Mode as an example, in 46.5% of product answers, it only links to Google's own pages, not merchant websites. Therefore, when planning, sellers need to observe the actual effect of each entry point separately, rather than treating all AI channels as the same kind of traffic.

Listing and images, whether they are easy for new entry points to understand; selling points and reviews, whether they are clear enough; whether products can be compared and chosen in a shorter decision chain—these will become increasingly important.

The exposure that used to come from higher budgets and grabbing placements may not be enough in the future. If traffic arrives but cannot be converted, and conversion quality does not improve, spending more on ads only pushes costs higher.

The rise of AI entry points is also a new opportunity for sellers. It filters traffic more precisely, and visitors who reach the site have often already made comparisons and have stronger purchase intent. For sellers who can polish content clearly and build trust fully, AI entry points are as worth investing in as traditional bidding.

The cold before Black Friday is not necessarily the end.

Seller Home Review

Before Black Friday, traffic divergence is intensifying: small and medium sellers' order volumes are falling, while AI channels show clear conversion advantages. Sellers should optimize listings as soon as possible to fit AI recommendation logic and re-evaluate ad budget allocation.