Entering October, originally a critical time to push hard for the year-end peak season, many sellers are on edge. Some are still stuck in the post-fall-sale slump with orders continuing to fall, while others have faced sudden rating drops, putting both traffic and conversion under pressure.

With Black Friday and Cyber Monday approaching, many sellers are losing their composure.

Orders Still Slow to Recover After the Fall Sale

Recently, a seller posted for help: the product rating dropped from 4.9 to 4.5 the day before the fall sale, with only one one-star review. After the sale started, orders kept declining and are now worse than the normal April-May period, and even worse in October. The seller is struggling with what adjustments to prioritize to stabilize orders and restore conversion as soon as possible.

After all, the second half's Black Friday and Cyber Monday are just around the corner, and it's time to prepare.

Facing this situation, some sellers admit that rating drops do affect conversion rates, especially when returns increase, but they caution against rushing to blame the rating entirely.

A seller offered very practical advice: first, use the fall sale as a boundary, take data from specific time frames, convert advertising and keyword metrics such as impressions, clicks, conversion, and ACOS into daily averages, and compare across multiple periods. If impressions, Sessions, and organic rankings are all declining, it's likely ad traffic or competitor promotions are to blame; if traffic hasn't changed much but conversion rate drops significantly after the rating decline, then rating is the core factor.

In addition, many sellers point out that it's a fact that overall market order volume has been falling after the fall sale.

One seller said: "After the fall sale, market traffic never recovered. We didn't stock much for this year's peak season, fearing poor traffic and huge storage fees..." Another seller said: "In our category, most products have been sluggish since the fall sale, and since mid-October the whole category has dropped sharply. We even thought Americans stopped buying our category."

So, if sellers also encounter order declines, they should first find the cause rather than immediately increasing ads or blindly cutting prices. An experienced seller shared a more actionable troubleshooting process:

Impressions, Sessions, and organic rankings all decline: prioritize checking ad traffic and competitor promotions — first review ad budgets, bids, keyword rankings, and competitor discounts;

Traffic hasn't changed much, but conversion rate drops significantly after rating decline: ratings, reviews, return reasons, and Q&A are core — first handle negative reviews and return issues;

The entire category declines broadly: it's likely an overall traffic issue, so control inventory and ad budgets, and don't blindly scale up;

ACOS exceeds the break-even line and top keywords are losing organic/paid placements: prioritize replenishing keywords and budgets to protect core traffic positions.

After all, major promotions are amplifiers — they magnify not only order volume but also your usual operational weaknesses. After troubleshooting your own issues, you also need to understand this year's overall demand structure. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are not simply a repeat of the fall sale; consumer budgets and decision-making patterns have changed.

2026 Black Friday Consumer Trends

According to the latest forecasts, the 2026 holiday season is still full of potential.

Adobe expects U.S. consumers to spend $275.1 billion online during this holiday season, up 6.7% from 2025; Deloitte also forecasts U.S. e-commerce sales will grow by 7.5% to 8.4%.

Looking at specific promotional days, the five-day Cyber Week is expected to reach $47.5 billion, up 7.4% year over year, including $6.9 billion on Thanksgiving, $12.9 billion on Black Friday, and $15.1 billion on Cyber Monday. Cyber Monday remains the biggest day, and Black Friday is still an unmissable peak.

But another consumer survey deserves attention. Omnisend surveyed 4,363 consumers in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Australia, and found that participation intention remains high, with 44% to 55% of people in each country planning to shop — but budgets are clearly tightening. U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $336, down about 30% from last year; U.K. consumers plan £267 and Canadians CA$325, with similar declines of around 30%.

In addition, budgets among high spenders are falling, while mid-to-low spenders are increasing. This year's Black Friday and Cyber Monday isn't without demand — the demand has changed. The market is now driven by a larger group of mid-to-low budget consumers who are more price-sensitive and have higher expectations for discounts.

Tighter per-customer budgets and rising price sensitivity are signals sellers should watch more closely. The survey also shows that consumers value discounts most, with 52% to 57% ranking them first, followed by free shipping; and 30% to 40% are willing to use buy now, pay later for large discounted purchases.

AI also needs to be part of sellers' considerations. Salesforce expects AI agents such as shopping assistants, automation tools, and price comparison apps to drive about 20% of global holiday e-commerce traffic; the survey also shows 18% to 22% of consumers will use generative AI to find deals. For small and medium sellers, this is both a new traffic window and a new test — as price comparison becomes easier, the price, rating, reviews, and shipping information on product pages will become even more important.

Major promotions won't be the same every year, and demand keeps changing. Wishing all sellers success and steady progress this peak season.