After Trump announced his victory in the US election, sellers and self-media professionals in the industry have expressed concerns about the future of the US e-commerce market over the next four years. Especially considering some of his tough policies during his previous term, such as the escalation of the China-US trade war and increased tariffs, many cross-border sellers are filled with unease about the future.However, upon closer examination of the current cross-border market environment and future policy trends, Xiao V believes that even if Trump comes to power, cross-border sellers do not need to "sacrifice in advance."

1. The demand in the US market is still strong

Although Trump's policies may continue to lean towards protectionism, inflation and unemployment issues mean that American consumers still have an increasing demand for reasonably priced and diverse cross-border e-commerce products.The US de minimis policy in recent years has facilitated the entry of a large number of small packages, allowing cross-border e-commerce to enter the market at low cost. Trump did not abolish this policy during his tenure, only strengthening the review of product safety and counterfeit goods. Even if he comes to power, policy adjustments may focus more on regulating product quality rather than completely blocking Chinese sellers' business (there are many things that US political parties oppose just for the sake of opposition).

2. Policy adjustments may lean towards high-level trade

Trump's ruling party may prioritize high-level trade disputes in industries such as bulk commodities and energy, with limited restrictions on small cross-border e-commerce businesses.For example, in 2023, although there has been discussion about the reform legislation of de minimis, the implementation is still weak, allowing cross-border e-commerce sellers to quickly enter the US market with packages under $800. Therefore, cross-border e-commerce sellers may face moderate tax adjustments or increased audits in the future, rather than a complete ban.

3. Support from supply chain resilience and diverse markets

Trump's policy orientation has prioritized the promotion of supply chain localization reform, but in recent years, the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce has led domestic sellers to diversify their supply chains, expanding into Southeast Asia and other regions. This supply chain layout will reduce the risks brought about by Trump's policies. Even if the US increases supervision of cross-border e-commerce with China, e-commerce sellers can diversify risks through non-US market expansion (sellers focusing on the US market can consider expanding into the Canadian market). At the same time, data from multiple platforms shows that global consumer market demand is still expanding, and China's e-commerce advantages are equally attractive in Southeast Asia and European markets.

4. Policy formulation and implementation are flexible

Trump's possible return to power will not have an immediate and comprehensive impact on the cross-border e-commerce market, especially sincetariff and regulatory adjustments require time and legislative procedures. Moreover, there is currently disagreement within the US Congress regarding support for protectionist policies. Even if Trump comes to power, his related policies may not be immediately or fully implemented. In addition, the US midterm elections and policy interest games will also cause many policies to be delayed or compromised, providing cross-border sellers with time to adapt and adjust.

So in Xiao V's view,even if Trump returns to the White House, the impact on cross-border e-commerce will not be "one-size-fits-all" severe, at least there will be a buffer period, and platform parties will also introduce corresponding measures to retain sellers,after all, capital also has its compromising nature.