As a hot spot for going overseas, the Middle East market once attracted a large number of Chinese sellers to make heavy investments. However, the continuous development of the war is transmitting uncertainty to the entire cross-border e-commerce industry chain, and problems such as logistics blockades, inventory backlogs, and high costs are emerging one after another.

For Chinese sellers who have been deeply involved in the local Middle East market, although the short-term impact has not yet fully appeared, risks are continuously accumulating.

The sudden outbreak of the war in the Middle East has plunged cross-border sellers with local layouts into operational uncertainty. Sellers with different layout depths and inventory reserves are clearly differentiated in the impact they suffer. The overall situation is still controllable in the short term, but problems such as inventory emergencies, demand shifts, and profit compression are continuously increasing anxiety about long-term operations.

Seller Li Hua (pseudonym) who operates the Amazon Middle East site said that order has not shown obvious fluctuations since the conflict broke out, and the current inventory in the FBA warehouse can still support daily operations. However, due to the direct impact of the complete shutdown of logistics, all production order delivery plans need to be readjusted. Zhu Long (pseudonym), also a seller of the Amazon Middle East site, encountered the dilemma of insufficient inventory reserves. The delivery plan originally scheduled for early March had to be temporarily suspended. However, he admitted that since the Middle East business accounts for a small proportion of the overall operation, the current impact is still within a controllable range.

This situation has also become the current situation of most sellers with shallow business layouts in the Middle East. For sellers who take the Middle East as their main market and have insufficient inventory reserves, operational anxiety has continued to rise.

Inventory shortage is the primary problem faced by many Middle East sellers at present, while sellers with sufficient inventory have temporarily stabilized their operational rhythm. Jarcklin, the person in charge of cross-border operations at Yinghua Zhi, said that because sufficient inventory was reserved in advance before the festival, the sales on mainstream platforms such as Amazon and Noon are normal at present, and orders have not been affected by the war. He also analyzed that the impact of this conflict is mostly concentrated in remote areas. The US military bases hit by Iran are all far from urban areas, and the warehouses of e-commerce platforms are mostly located in urban areas of core cities such as Dubai and Riyadh. The local logistics service providers and the last-mile delivery network of platform self-built logistics have not been interfered with. Therefore,the delivery efficiency and seller orders in urban areas can maintain a normal level in the short term.

However, Jarcklin also gave a clear risk warning: If the war continues for more than a month, negative impacts will gradually emerge. Especially after the replenishment channel is cut off for a long time, the risk of sellers running out of stock will rise sharply. The Middle East e-commerce market is highly dependent on local warehouse delivery, and the platform even takes local delivery as an important indicator for product search ranking. Coupled with the strict requirements of local consumers for logistics timeliness, once the inventory is exhausted and there is no hope of replenishment, the seller's store operation will directly fall into a standstill.

Compared with inventory problems, Li Hua is more anxious about the subsequent risk of order decline. The 3C category he operates belongs to non-life necessities. If the war continues to ferment, the purchasing desire of consumers in the Middle East will inevitably drop significantly, and the consumption focus will shift to necessities such as food and daily necessities. At that time, the sales of 3C products will fall into a "precarious" situation. In fact, the consumption behavior of Middle Eastern consumers is extremely sensitive to changes in the situation. The uncertainty of social stability will directly suppress the consumption demand for non-necessities, which is also the common concern of all sellers layout non-necessities in the Middle East.

The unpredictability of the war also makes sellers' market layout decisions difficult. Zhu Long said whether to continue to layout the Middle East market in the future depends on whether profits can cover risks. If risks remain high, it is not ruled out that cross-border e-commerce business in the Middle East will be stopped. The impact of the current war has gradually spread from the logistics level. Rising freight costs and platform risk control upgrades have directly compressed sellers' profit margins; while market uncertainty has made sellers entangled in "investment and withdrawal": continuous investment may face losses brought about by the escalation of the situation, and withdrawal means that previous investments in local warehouses and localized operations are in vain.

For sellers who have been deeply involved in the Middle East market, it is imperative to adjust their current operational strategies. If the Middle East is taken as the main market, it is necessary to closely monitor the inventory consumption rate, adjust operational strategies in a timely manner, and prepare in advance for layout other overseas markets, so as to reduce the impact of fluctuations in a single region by diversifying market layout; Before the situation is clear, cautious inventory and focusing on the operation of necessities become the key to strictly control operational risks.

Compared with the indirect pressure on cross-border sellers, the cross-border logistics industry has become the direct impact of the Middle East war.

The passage of core logistics channels such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which makes the air and sea transportation logistics in the Middle East direction largely restricted. Domestic mainstream logistics enterprises, globally renowned shipping companies and airlines have introduced emergency response measures one after another, showing an overall situation of soaring costs and significantly delayed timeliness in the entire logistics industry, and the stability of the logistics link has been severely broken.

Looking at the air transport market, regional route operations have shown obvious differentiation. Huilian Logistics introduced that air transportation in the direction of the United Arab Emirates and Dubai has been suspended due to the local situation, while Saudi air transportation currently only has Saudi Airlines SV flights flying to Riyadh The route still maintains normal operation, and other airlines' Middle East routes such as EK, EY, and QR have basically been suspended, and all market entities are waiting for further notice from the airlines. In terms of freight, the price of Saudi SV express has taken the lead in increasing, and there is a possibility of a sharp increase in the overall air freight rate, but there is no clear news about the specific increase.

The impact on the maritime field is even more obvious, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz prevents large ships from passing normally, berthing and carrying out operations, and maritime transportation in the Middle East direction is basically stagnant. Related ships have to choose to divert transportation. Faced with this situation, many international mainstream shipping companies quickly issued emergency notices to adjust routes and businesses: MSC directly suspended global booking business to the Middle East, and all its ships went to safe havens to avoid risks; Maersk resumed the transportation plan around the Cape of Good Hope, suspending all passages through the Strait of Hormuz; CMA CGM not only suspended passage through the Suez Canal and diverted to the Cape of Good Hope, but also introduced emergency conflict surcharges; Hapag-Lloyd also chose to bypass the Cape of Good Hope and suspend passage through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, a war risk surcharge was imposed.

The significant increase in logistics costs and the significant increase in transportation risks have become common problems faced by the current logistics industry. Anshida Logistics revealed that under the influence of the current situation, basic logistics costs will rise sharply, but the specific increase is temporarily uncertain. This is also the current situation of the entire logistics industry. In addition to basic logistics costs, war risk, bypass surcharge and other related costs have also increased significantly. The superposition of multiple costs has caused the overall cost of logistics transportation to rise. Affected by this, cargo transportation in the direction of the Middle East, the Red Sea, and Israel generally experiences delays and suspensions, and freight on these routes has also increased synchronously, seriously affecting the timeliness and economy of logistics transportation.

In terms of overseas warehouse operations and terminal delivery links, the industry shows the characteristics of "local stability and outstanding bottlenecks". At present, the overseas warehouses of various logistics companies remain normal operation and have not been directly affected by the situation in the Middle East. Huilian Logistics also clearly stated that its overseas warehouse operations are normal, which is also one of the few stable links in the current logistics industry. However, the domestic shipment of goods to the Middle East is basically in a suspended state, which has become a major bottleneck in logistics transportation.

The warehouse delivery service shows obvious regional differentiation characteristics. The warehouse delivery service in Saudi Arabia is still carried out normally, while the warehouse delivery service in the United Arab Emirates has been completely suspended. Saisi Supply Chain Technology has also confirmed this situation. Its Saudi flights are normal and the warehouse delivery is normal. The status of flights in the United Arab Emirates is still being further confirmed, and the warehouse delivery service has been suspended in advance.

In response to the current logistics situation, various logistics companies have given targeted operational suggestions according to their own business conditions.For goods that have been shipped, Anshida Logistics said it would find a transit point for the goods on the way, which is also a common practice in the industry. Shippers need to wait patiently for transportation progress and continuously pay attention to changes in the situation in the Middle East.For goods that have not been shipped yet, Anshida Logistics, Huilian Logistics and other companies all suggest that the shipment plan be postponed, the goods be temporarily stored in the warehouse, and the goods be shipped immediately after the logistics channel is restored. At the same time, shippers need to communicate with their cooperative logistics providers in advance to obtain the latest transportation information in time to avoid losses caused by information lag.

It should be noted that the current situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly, and relevant policies and notices in the logistics industry may also be adjusted at any time. Huilian Logistics reminds that the current industry status may change at any time, and previous relevant explanations may soon no longer apply. Therefore, all logistics operations must be based on the latest official notices issued by airlines and shipping companies. All market entities need to continue to observe the dynamics of the situation and adjust logistics plans in a timely manner.