During the peak season, self-mockery in seller circles is rising.

Some ask if everyone else is seeing a sales surge while only they were left out of the peak season; others say Prime Day didn’t bring them a spike, but the post–Prime Day slump did.

The logic of traffic distribution has changed

“Orders are shrinking day by day. Yesterday I thought it had bottomed out; today I discovered there is still a basement below. I open the dashboard full of hope and close it doubting my life. Ad spending remains stable—not a cent less—while orders increasingly learn frugality.” One seller described the current situation.

Another seller said, “The peak season is arriving too slowly this year. In previous years, by September or October there were signs of growth; now everything is trending down, and even exchange rates offer no clarity.”

Many sellers clearly feel the peak season is later than before. Many prepared based on past timing, joined platform promotions, and kept running ads, but market feedback did not meet expectations, leaving those who counted on promotions to concentrate orders disappointed.

In fact, this year’s peak season does not lack traffic; the way traffic is distributed has changed.

During the just-ended 2026 Amazon fall Prime Day, U.S. online spending reached $9.86 billion, but seller-side feedback was generally cold. Some sellers said last year’s sales reached 3.4 times normal, while this year it was under 3 times. The contrast shows the event still had heat, but many sellers could no longer convert traffic into orders as reliably as before.

One seller pointed out: “Recently the backend really makes you doubt your life. Ad spending hasn’t decreased, but orders have learned to economize. In fact, traffic fluctuations before the peak season are normal; everyone is competing for volume. But honestly, if ads keep spending without orders, conversion is probably not holding up. Many competitors are quietly changing images and A+ content, and buyers are comparing prices more aggressively. I suggest searching core keywords on the front end to see whether your main image can attract clicks. If the page cannot support conversion, the budget is just working for the platform. Hold on—stabilize conversion first and wait for the wind.”

Perhaps traffic does not automatically turn into sales, and sellers also face competition beyond ad placement. After seeing a product, consumers still compare prices, images, and page information. When competitors are more attractive or buyers are more cautious, campaign clicks may stop at clicks.

Peak-season opportunities still exist, but whether they convert into orders increasingly depends on whether products can win in more cautious consumer choices. New research from Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, shows that economic pressure makes consumers pursue value for money.

Another furniture manufacturer collapses

It is not only small and medium sellers waiting for orders; some large sellers are struggling or have already collapsed.

According to a court announcement in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, by the bankruptcy acceptance date, Hengnuo’s total assets were RMB 60,577,747.94, total liabilities RMB 121,199,615.71, and net assets minus RMB 60,621,867.77—insolvent by more than RMB 60 million.

The court found the company unable to repay due debts, assets insufficient to cover all debts, and no one applied for reorganization or settlement, so it was declared bankrupt according to law.

Public records show the company was founded in 2002 as Hangzhou Huatai Leather Co., changed its name in 2009, and shifted to furniture manufacturing, mainly exporting leisure furniture to Europe and the United States. At its peak it had more than 20,000 square meters of factory space and over one hundred workers; by the 2025 annual report, only one insured employee remained.

From a 20,000-square-meter factory to one insured employee, the company did not fail suddenly. Hengnuo’s assets were mainly plant, equipment, and inventory—a typical heavy-asset export factory configuration. In an industry upturn, these assets symbolized strength and supported large customer orders. In a downturn, plant and equipment cannot be liquidated, and inventory must be cleared at a discount, so the real liquidation value is far below the audited figures.

Meanwhile, interest, supplier payments, and financial loan disputes kept accumulating. In 2025 the company was involved in 119 judicial cases and repeatedly restricted from high consumption over financial loan disputes. Assets were “dead,” debts were “alive,” and the gap only widened.

By the 2025 annual report, this once large factory had only one insured employee left, and operations had effectively halted.

The announcement did not disclose the specific debt composition, revenue changes, major customers, or business decisions, so it cannot be concluded that falling orders, rising costs, or a particular channel change caused the bankruptcy.

Hengnuo’s model was typical OEM export: take orders, produce, ship, and wait for payment. When the external environment deteriorates, there is almost no room to adjust—if customers cut orders, the factory sits idle; if customers squeeze prices, margins are compressed.

On a deeper level, Hengnuo represents the path dependence formed by a class of export factories in a specific historical stage: starting with capacity dividends, expanding through large customer orders, and lowering costs through scale. This logic worked during the globalization dividend period, when orders and payments were stable; factories only needed to control costs and deliver on time. But its premise is a stable external environment. Once tariff barriers rise, overseas demand contracts, and exchange-rate volatility increases, the fragility is exposed.

This is not Hengnuo’s problem alone, but a shared contraction facing a group of export factories dependent on a single market and lacking brand and channel control.

Hengnuo’s case reminds us that, whether seller or factory, scale is never the margin of safety; cash flow is. When the market diverges, only those who survive can talk about the next peak season.